Paradigm shift in China, India relations      Author: Dr Moonis Ahmar

The article explores the unfolding paradigm shift in Sino-Indian relations, a shift that has moved from speculation to reality and now demands careful analysis. Once locked in bitter rivalry after the deadly border clashes of 2020 and decades of mistrust dating back to the 1962 war, China and India are suddenly shaking hands where they once clenched fists. The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to New Delhi, followed by Modi’s participation in the SCO summit in Tianjin, marked a dramatic turn where both sides vowed to restart direct flights, boost trade, negotiate troop withdrawals and ease border tensions. Despite India’s longstanding reservations over China’s mega dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, Beijing attempted to pacify Delhi’s anxieties. Modi, reading the changing winds, publicly declared that stable and predictable ties with Beijing would not only bring peace to Asia but also bolster global prosperity.

The article underscores that India’s warming towards China is not a leap of faith but a recalibration driven by national interests. For two decades, India leaned heavily on Washington, joining QUAD to counter Chinese influence, but Trump’s return to the White House shifted the balance. His tilt towards Pakistan during the May 7–10 war, coupled with punishing tariffs on Indian exports, forced New Delhi to question America’s reliability. The dictum that there are no permanent enemies or allies, only permanent interests, comes alive here. By pivoting towards Beijing and exploring a Sino-Indian-Russian axis, India seeks to cut America down to size, dilute the Sino-Pakistan bond and carve space for itself in an evolving multipolar world. The author argues that this is no fleeting flirtation but a strategic reorientation, echoing Palmerston’s timeless wisdom that states follow interests, not sentiments.

Overview:

The article portrays how shifting alliances and bruised partnerships have propelled India to mend fences with China, demonstrating that in global politics, yesterday’s adversary can become today’s partner. It is not simply about border demarcations or trade concessions but about India recalculating its place in a world moving from bipolar rigidity to multipolar fluidity. The narrative cuts through the smoke of slogans and rhetoric to show how strategic necessity, not idealism, is reshaping Asian geopolitics.

NOTES:

The article highlights the unfolding paradigm shift in Sino-Indian relations where old hostilities are giving way to cautious cooperation. After decades of mistrust since the 1962 war and fresh tensions following the 2020 border clash, both sides are now showing willingness to mend ties. The Chinese Foreign Minister’s visit to New Delhi opened the door for resumption of direct flights, boosting trade, troop withdrawal talks, and dialogue on the border issue. Despite India’s misgivings over China’s proposed mega dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, Beijing attempted to allay its concerns. India’s strategic recalibration is shaped by disillusionment with the United States, particularly Trump’s tilt towards Pakistan during the May 7–10 war and heavy tariffs on Indian exports. As a result, New Delhi now sees value in mending fences with Beijing, reducing China-Pakistan closeness, and strengthening a possible Sino-Indian-Russian axis to balance American influence. The piece reinforces the dictum that there are no permanent allies or enemies, only permanent interests, showing how realpolitik is driving the current thaw.

Relevant CSS syllabus or subjects:

• Current Affairs: Sino-Indian relations, US tilt towards Pakistan, QUAD and multipolarity
• International Relations: Realism, shifting alliances, balance of power, strategic partnerships.
• Political Science: State interests versus permanent friendships, regional conflict resolution
• Essay Paper: Themes on global power shifts, multipolarity, trust deficit in alliances

Notes for Beginners:

The article says that India and China who have fought wars and clashed on borders are now trying to fix relations. For example, they agreed to resume direct flights, talk about troop withdrawals and increase trade. Earlier, India was relying on the US, but after Trump supported Pakistan and even punished Indian exports, India realised it cannot put all eggs in the American basket. Now Modi is trying to balance by getting closer to China, which also weakens the China-Pakistan friendship. This shows that countries change friends and foes depending on their interests.

Facts and Figures:

• China remained India’s largest trading partner with annual trade worth 136 billion dollars.
• Wang Yi visited New Delhi in August 2025, meeting Modi, Jaishankar and Ajit Doval.
• Agreements included resuming direct flights, boosting trade, and establishing a working group on border management
• Modi is scheduled to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin on August 31, 2025.
• Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports after India defied pressure to stop oil imports from Russia.
• During the May 7–10 war, China openly supported Pakistan, prompting Trump to mediate and offer to resolve the Kashmir dispute.

To put it simply, the article makes it crystal clear that the so-called paradigm shift in Sino-Indian relations is more than diplomatic small talk. It is a tectonic change where India disillusioned with Washington is tilting towards Beijing to protect its strategic turf. It reminds us that in the grand chessboard of global politics today’s foe can become tomorrow’s ally for what matters is not sentiment but survival, not loyalty but lasting interests.