SAARC alternative: myth or reality?

The article addresses the burning question: Can a China-led regional alliance truly replace SAARC, or is it merely a pipe dream? With SAARC stuck in the mud due to the longstanding Indo-Pak tensions, whispers of a new alliance minus India are gaining traction. But here’s the catch — China, although powerful and deeply tied with Pakistan, doesn’t fit neatly into the South Asian puzzle. It’s geographically East Asian and ideologically distant from South Asia’s regional priorities. Hence, forming a China-centric bloc would be like fitting a square peg into a round hole. Even if SCO exists with overlapping ambitions, trying to duplicate that under a new name may only muddy the waters further.

On the flip side, the geopolitical and strategic consequences of such a shift are more than just ripples in the pond. Most SAARC nations, tightly roped in with India through aid, trade, and diplomacy, would think twice before jumping ship. Afghanistan, for instance, despite its rocky ties with Pakistan, sees India as a steady partner in development. And while economists may chase the golden goose of prosperity through a new alliance, realists in the international system know that survival and power trump all. The EU, bolstered by NATO’s security net, is a case in point. Without similar safeguards, a China-led SAARC substitute risks being a house of cards. Unless the hard questions of sovereignty, allegiance, and independence are addressed, this alternative will remain more illusion than reality.

Overview:

The article critically evaluates the feasibility of replacing SAARC with a new regional organization led by China and Pakistan, highlighting geographic inconsistencies, geopolitical challenges, and economic-realistic conflicts. It questions whether such a structure could function effectively when most South Asian countries maintain deep-rooted ties with India, and China lies outside the geographical boundary of South Asia. The piece ultimately suggests that while the idea may appear economically sound, the realist foreign policy concerns and regional power dynamics make its success doubtful.

NOTES:

The article highlights the ongoing dysfunction of SAARC, attributing its ineffectiveness largely to persistent tensions between India and Pakistan. It explores the recent suggestion of creating an alternative regional organization led by China and Pakistan, excluding India. However, the writer argues that this proposition faces critical challenges, primarily because China is geographically and ideologically outside South Asia. The article points out that most SAARC countries including Bhutan, Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka  have deep economic and strategic ties with India and are unlikely to join any anti-India bloc. Afghanistan too maintains cordial relations with India due to its development aid and shared projects, making it hesitant to align with an alliance perceived as anti-India. While the economic logic of a new organization may appeal to some states, the realist logic of national security and strategic autonomy takes precedence in international politics. Drawing on the example of the EU-NATO alliance, the writer warns that such organizations only thrive when both economic interests and security guarantees align. Without addressing the strategic concerns of the member states, any alternative to SAARC, particularly one dominated by China, risks being unsustainable and strategically divisive.

Relevant CSS Subjects and Topics:

• Pakistan Affairs: SAARC, regional diplomacy, Indo-Pak relations
• International Relations: Regionalism, Realism vs Liberalism, Geopolitics of South Asia
• Current Affairs: China’s growing influence, alternative alliances
• Political Science: Theoretical frameworks in foreign policy
• Essay Paper: Regional cooperation, multipolarity, and power shifts

Notes for beginners:

The article discusses how SAARC an organization meant for cooperation among South Asian countries has become ineffective mainly due to tensions between India and Pakistan. Some suggest forming a new group led by China and Pakistan, but there’s a big hurdle because China isn’t even part of South Asia. Moreover, many SAARC countries like Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka are closely tied to India for trade and support. For example, India gave $4 billion in aid to Sri Lanka during its 2022–23 crisis. Afghanistan, despite not having good ties with Pakistan, maintains a friendly relationship with India because of development projects like roads, schools and dams. So building a new group without India might not work unless countries also get security and economic benefits like those the EU received from the US through NATO.

Facts and Figures:

• India invested $3 billion in Afghanistan, building infrastructure like Salma Dam and Afghan Parliament
• Sri Lanka received $4 billion in aid from India during its 2022–23 economic crisis
• China is not a South Asian country but shares borders with four SAARC nations
• Afghanistan is part of INSTC, which rivals China’s BRI
• SCO already serves as a regional cooperation body led by Russia and China

To wrap up, this article shows that replacing SAARC is no walk in the park. It’s not just about removing India from the equation but confronting the bitter truths of geography, power politics and national interests. While economic cooperation is a tempting carrot, it’s the stick of realism that ultimately drives foreign policy decisions. Unless the right questions are addressed with clarity and foresight, the idea of an alternative to SAARC may remain more of a myth than a regional miracle.

Difficult Words and Meanings with Synonyms and Antonyms:

• Dysfunctional: Not operating normally (Syn: broken, ineffective | Ant: functional)
• Premise: A foundational idea or assumption (Syn: basis, assumption | Ant: conclusion)
• Geopolitical: Relating to politics influenced by geography (Syn: strategic, territorial | Ant: non-strategic)
• Ideological: Based on a set of beliefs (Syn: doctrinal, philosophical | Ant: neutral, pragmatic)
• Cordial: Warm and friendly (Syn: amiable, warm | Ant: hostile, cold)