One year on

The first year of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government has been marked by governance challenges, political instability, and increasing authoritarianism. While the ruling coalition boasts of achievements, public sentiment tells a different story, with an Ipsos survey indicating that nearly 80% of the population believes the country is heading in the wrong direction. From the outset, Sharif’s government struggled with legitimacy due to a disputed general election that resulted in a fragmented mandate. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), despite lacking a parliamentary majority, formed the government with the support of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the establishment. This dependence on military backing led to an unprecedented expansion of military influence in civilian affairs, particularly in governance and the economy. The government also faced relentless opposition from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), leading to political confrontations, legal battles, and increasing suppression of dissent. The 26th Constitutional Amendment, which undermined judicial independence, and enhanced control over media and digital platforms, further highlighted the government’s shift toward authoritarian rule.

Economically, the government secured a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) package, stabilizing inflation and macroeconomic indicators in the short term. However, it failed to introduce structural reforms, leaving the economy vulnerable to debt crises and external financial dependencies. Exports plummeted, and investment remained stagnant despite efforts under the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). The security situation also deteriorated, with rising terrorist activity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, making the past year the deadliest for law enforcement personnel in a decade. On the foreign policy front, the government largely focused on seeking loans and debt rollovers, particularly from Gulf countries, rather than adopting a strategic approach to global geopolitics. Ultimately, the government’s first year in power has been defined by weak governance, a tightening grip on democratic institutions, and an economic strategy reliant on external assistance rather than self-sufficiency.

Overview:

Shehbaz Sharif’s government has struggled with legitimacy, economic stability, and security challenges while increasing military influence and curbing civil liberties. Despite securing an IMF bailout and some fiscal discipline, the administration has failed to introduce structural reforms or foster political stability. With rising authoritarian measures and an economic model heavily reliant on external borrowing, the government’s trajectory remains uncertain.

NOTES:

The government’s reliance on the military has led to increasing authoritarianism, curbs on judicial independence, and suppression of opposition. Economic policies have prioritized stabilization over long-term growth, yet structural issues remain unresolved. The worsening security situation, particularly in KP and Balochistan, underscores governance challenges. In foreign policy, the emphasis has been on securing financial aid rather than strategic partnerships, highlighting Pakistan’s economic dependence. The article provides intuitions into Pakistan’s civil-military relations, governance issues, economic policies, security concerns, and diplomatic approach.

CSS Syllabus Relevance:

• Pakistan Affairs: Political stability, governance, and military influence.
• International Relations: Foreign policy, economic dependency, and global alliances.
• Current Affairs: Judiciary reforms, press freedom, and counterterrorism measures.
• Economic Affairs: IMF loans, tax reforms, and investment challenges.
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Notes for Beginners:

The government has struggled with political instability, economic problems, and security threats. Due to a weak mandate, it depends on the military, leading to restrictions on free speech and judicial independence. Although an IMF loan provided temporary relief, economic growth remains stagnant. Security concerns have risen with increased militant attacks, especially in KP and Balochistan. In foreign affairs, Pakistan has focused more on financial aid than building strong international relationships. The article highlights these key challenges and how they impact governance and development.

Facts and Figures:

• 80% of Pakistanis believe the country is moving in the wrong direction (Ipsos survey).
• Exports fell to 8% of GDP from 16% a decade ago.
• Investment-to-GDP ratio declined to 13%, reflecting economic stagnation.
• $7 billion IMF loan was secured, but debt concerns persist.
• Highest number of law-enforcement casualties in a decade, highlighting security issues.

To wrap up, Shehbaz Sharif’s government has spent its first year battling legitimacy crises, political opposition, and economic instability while adopting increasingly authoritarian measures. While some macroeconomic stability has been achieved, the absence of long-term reforms, worsening security conditions, and continued suppression of dissent paint a troubling picture. If governance continues on this trajectory, Pakistan may face even greater political and economic turmoil in the years ahead.

Difficult Words and Meanings:

• Underwhelming – Not meeting expectations (Syn: Disappointing, Ant: Impressive)
• Denuded – Stripped of something essential (Syn: Deprived, Ant: Provided)
• Fragmented – Broken into parts (Syn: Divided, Ant: Unified)
• Autocratisation – Movement toward authoritarian rule (Syn: Dictatorship, Ant: Democracy)
• Supplicant – A petitioner, often desperate (Syn: Beggar, Ant: Donor)