Comprehending Iran           Author: Inam Ul Haque

The article shows Iran’s turbulent journey through wars, sanctions, and power struggles, showing how its nuclear ambition, proxy strategy, and defiant stance against the United States and Israel have shaped its destiny. It highlights how the combined US-Israeli strike weakened but did not crush Iran’s nuclear programme, while Tehran’s reliance on missiles, espionage, and psychological warfare keeps it in the game. Drawing upon Prof Vali Nasr’s analysis, the piece explains that Iran’s security thinking springs less from revolutionary fervour and more from national survival instincts born of the eight-year war with Iraq, which left deep scars but also ignited self-reliance, patriotism, and a taste for proxy power. The doctrine of “forward defence” under IRGC and Qasem Soleimani became Iran’s sword and shield, but cracks are now showing as economic hardship and restless youth chip away at clerical authority.

At the same time Iran’s regional influence is waning as it loses ground in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen while Israel, backed by Washington and quietly supported by Arab states, grows stronger. The looming question of succession after Ayatollah Khamenei with his son Mojtaba tipped as a likely heir risks turning the republic into a dynastic rule, possibly entrenching “forward defence” even deeper. Despite all odds, the writer points to a faint silver lining: in the shifting sands of the Middle East, Tehran has rediscovered the value of its friendship with Pakistan. In short, the article paints Iran’s story as one of resilience laced with overreach, a state that punches above its weight yet cannot escape the burden of its past.

Overview:

Thi is a deeply analytical article blending history, strategy, and regional politics. It traces Iran’s arc from the revolutionary storm of 1979 to the missile duels of today, unpacking how wars, sanctions, and survival instincts crafted its strategic culture. The article weaves together lessons of resistance, costs of overreach, and the fragile balance between ideology and national interest.

NOTES:

The article highlights how the US-Israeli strike in June 2025 weakened but did not end Iran’s nuclear programme, as Tehran remains determined to pursue nuclear arms. It explains that Iran’s strategic culture stems largely from the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, which bred self-reliance, religious zeal and the reliance on proxy warfare. This laid the foundation for the “forward defence” doctrine formally adopted in 2003 under which General Qasem Soleimani expanded Iran’s influence through groups like Hezbollah and by drawing Russia into Syria’s war. Despite heavy indoctrination and propaganda, Iran’s younger population is increasingly disillusioned due to economic hardship, lack of freedoms, and weak prospects. Regionally, Iran’s influence is shrinking as it loses ground in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen while Israel, backed by the US and supported tacitly by Arab states, is gaining dominance. Succession after Ayatollah Khamenei is a pressing question, with his son Mojtaba tipped as the likely heir, raising fears of dynastic rule and an even firmer embrace of “forward defence.” The article concludes by noting a silver lining for Pakistan as Tehran amid regional setbacks appears to value its friendship with Islamabad more than before.

Relevant CSS syllabus or subjects:

• International Relations: Regional rivalries, nuclear politics, proxy warfare
• Current Affairs: Iran–US–Israel tensions, Middle East conflicts, shifting alliances
• Political Science: Theocracy, authoritarianism, strategic culture, succession politics
• Pakistan Affairs: Pak-Iran relations, regional security dynamics
• Essay Paper: Multipolarity, resilience of states under pressure, ideology in foreign policy

Notes for Beginners:

The article explains that Iran has faced repeated blows, such as the US-Israeli strike on its nuclear sites in 2025, yet it refuses to abandon its nuclear dream. It relies on proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis and follows a “forward defence” strategy, which means fighting threats abroad before they reach home. For example, General Qasem Soleimani used this doctrine to bring Russia and Hezbollah into Syria’s war. Iran’s problems, however, are mounting. Young people are tired of restrictions, the economy is weak, and its influence in Syria and Iraq is shrinking. Meanwhile, Israel with US backing is getting stronger, and Arab states are tilting against Iran. For Pakistan, the lesson is that regional friendships and strategic balance are key to survival in a turbulent neighbourhood.

Facts and Figures:

• US-Israeli strike in June 2025 damaged but did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme
• Iran’s war with Iraq lasted eight years (1980-88) and reshaped its strategic culture
• Iran Hostage Crisis lasted 444 days (1979-81)
• Forward defence doctrine formally adopted in 2003
• Ayatollah Khamenei’s likely successor is his son Mojtaba, aged 56
• General Qasem Soleimani killed in 2020, previously key architect of Iran’s proxy wars

To wrap up, The article shows Iran as both defiant and fragile, clinging to ideology yet forced to compromise with harsh realities. The story carries lessons for Pakistan too: in world politics, survival depends less on rhetoric and more on foresight, alliances, and adaptability. The article leaves us with a striking thought that Iran may be a lion bruised and cornered, but it still knows how to roar, and its roar will continue to echo across the Middle East.